Pros and Cons of Utilizing the Kelly Criterion for Football Betting(1)

It is safe to say that football lovers boil the ocean so as to find a way to improve their chances to make their betting session more lucrative. That is why an ever-growing number of soccer lovers seek to find a betting method which can help them make the right assessments of the situation. Beyond the shadow of a doubt, this is a far more beneficial approach than relying on your gut feeling when making up your mind about the size of your stakes or the type of bet you will go for.


As it turns out, the Kelly Criterion remains one of the most favored methods of football betting. Still, this is anything but surprising due to the fact that the method will help you to resolve on how much money you should wager in the event that the odds are in your favor. The most pleasing thing about this football betting method remains that it promises to deliver a higher profit in comparison with most of the other such options available out there.

The Kelly Criterion Explained

The Kelly Criterion Explained

Football fans who are determined to broaden their horizons, and to make their betting session even more bountiful might be keen on learning more about the Kelly Criterion. In essence, this betting method is applicable to almost all forms of gambling, including wagering on soccer. Other than that, it is utilized while making investments due to the fact that it is the perfect tool which can maintain the equilibrium between risk and prize.

As far as wagering on football is concerned, gambling enthusiasts should remember that the Kelly Criterion might turn out to be the best tool for optimizing the returns they may potentially enjoy. Best of all, gambling devotees will also have the chance to make their bankroll less vulnerable. Thus, if these are exactly the goals you have set, it might be a good idea to explore the manner in which this football betting method functions.

One of the first things we need to clarify about the Kelly Criterion is that in practice, this is a mathematical formula which is utilized in order to figure out how much money you should put at risk in the specific situation. Football lovers should be informed that this betting method takes account of their bankroll, which remains one of its distinctive traits.

Thus, if we take a look at the Kelly Criterion formula from football betting perspective, it will come into use while we are estimating the size of our stakes. In other words, soccer lovers will be capable of figuring out how much money they should lay down, depending on the budget they have. More likely than not, now, you think that utilizing this football gambling method during your betting session will be as easy as pie. Unfortunately, there is more to it than you might anticipate due to the fact that soccer lovers need to pay special attention to the likelihood of their stake to turn out to be a winning one.

The reason why you should endeavor to do this is that with the Kelly Criterion, gambling enthusiasts will be required to augment their stake in the event that their chances of winning are higher and vice versa, to diminish the size of their stakes when they are less likely to score a win. In this way, football lovers will be able to enjoy more substantial returns, whereas the losses they might experience will not be that heavy.

Still, football lovers should commit to their mind that the likelihood of their stakes to become winning ones cannot be estimated with such clarity and precision due to the fact that there is a broad variety of factors which should be taken account of. In essence, soccer lovers who wish to puzzle out whether their stake is odds-on to become a winning one, or they are more likely to lose, should remember that to some extent, such conclusions depend on their personal judgment. That is the reason why many old hands at football betting take a dim view when it comes to utilizing the Kelly Criterion during their sports betting session.

One of the main reasons why total rookies might find it quite hard to make use of this football betting method is that they will be compelled to make up their mind about how likely certain events are to occur. Needless to say, this requires a lot of expertise, and of course, a good deal of exactness.

The Kelly Criterion Formula

The Kelly Criterion Formula

Luckily, football devotees who have some background in wagering on soccer should rest easy that they will be capable of resolving on the probabilities of the stakes they make with reasonable precision.

Gambling enthusiasts who wish to plunge into soccer betting should know that as long as they have decided to give the Kelly Criterion a try, they are advised to make use of decimal odds. The reason why you should consider utilizing this odds format is that it will be much easier for you to make the necessary calculations.

When all is said and done, football lovers need to know that the formula they should make use of looks like this: ((B x P) – Q) / B. As likely as not, you are perplexed right now. The good news is that you should not get dispirited due to the fact that you are highly unlikely to stumble upon any issues while figuring out the components which make up the equation.

In this equation, B represents the multiple of the wager football lovers stand the chance to sweep. Thus, since we have resolved on utilizing decimal odds, punters are required to subtract 1 by the value of the odds they are allowed to opt for. In simple terms, as long as we assume that you have committed yourself to wager as much as $20 at odds of 3.00, this would mean that a winning stake will bring you as much as $60, meaning that the multiple is 2.

The next parameter we will focus on is P, which is used in order to represent the likelihood of your stake to become a winning one. As long as we presume that the chances of your wager to become a winning one are 40%, this would indicate that the probability of your stake to bring you a reward is 0.40.

When it comes to Q, however, it reflects the chances of your stake to become a losing one. Thus, since we have assumed that the chances of our stake to become a winning one are 40%, therefore, there is a 60% likelihood that it will be a losing one. Hence, in our case, the value of Q would stand at 0.60. In other words, football lovers might subtract the probability of success from one, so that they could get the probability of failure.

Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: ((2 x 0.40)- 0.60) / 2 = 0.1. In other words, according to the Kelly Criterion, in this case, football lovers should stake 0.1 of the amount they have set aside for gambling purposes. The fact that the value we have eventually got is positive indicates that you will enjoy an edge, meaning that you will have the chance to reap larger rewards.

Many knowledgeable football punters consider that the Kelly Criterion is heads and shoulders above a good deal of the other staking methods due to the fact that with this betting method, the risk which might occur is significantly smaller. Contrary to what most people believe, the Kelly Criterion might turn out to be quite demanding due to the fact that soccer lovers should make sure that their calculations are accurate as otherwise, they might end up with an exhausted bankroll in a few ticks.

Expected Value

One of the most essential things we should highlight is that football devotees should make sure that they are conversant with the term expected value. Those of you who are not aware of this term should commit to their mind that when the likelihood of their stake to become a winning one is greater than the implied probability of the odds, this would mean that the expected value is positive.

Thus, if we take as an example a toss of a coin, making a stake on either heads or tails comes with 50% chances of turning out to be a winning one, meaning that the implied probability would stand at 0.50. In this specific case, the value of the odds will stand at 2.00. Therefore, as long as you reckon that the chances of your stake to become a winning one exceed 50%, this would mean that it promises to bring positive value.

As likely as not, you might be slightly bewildered at the moment why we are telling you all these things. One of the most essential things football lovers should commit to their mind is that the only way to make sure that the Kelly Criterion will bring them the desired results is to go for stakes which promise to bring positive value.

It is safe to say that value is subjective due to the fact that soccer bettors have different standpoints about the likelihood of their stake to become a winning one. Still, gambling enthusiasts should remember that while they are making up their mind about the stake they should make, they are advised to bet at odds the value of which will suffice to make up for the risk they should take.

This is precisely where the Kelly Criterion comes into play. Thus, as long as the value you have eventually got is negative, this should hint you that you should abstain from making such a stake, even if you consider that it stands a good chance to become a winning one.

Let’s take a look at another example so as to make sure that you have figured out the ins and outs of this football betting method. Now, let’s suppose that you have decided to make a stake on a matchup between Real Madrid and Ajax, and the odds of the teams are 2.60 and 4.50 respectively. Let’s presume that in your viewpoint, the chances of Real Madrid to end up victorious are 65%, which therefore means that the implied probability will stand at 0.65. Hence, according to the Kelly Criterion, eventually, we will get -0.05 as the equation will look like this: ((0.50 x 0.65) – 0.35) / 0.50. Since the result we have ultimately got is negative, this should indicate that it would be a better idea if we abstain from making such a stake simply because the odds are not high enough to compensate for the risk we will need to take.